Unstoppable Global Warming by Singer and Avery

In 2007, Fred Singer and Dennis Avery published their book, Unstoppable Global Warming – Every 1500 years. Unfortunately, as with all the data in this book, the front cover photo must have been carefully chosen to not show any sign of change unprecedented in many thousands of years. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Furthermore, if your name is Anthony Watts, please note that James Hansen and I have not collaborated to write the book pictured here, which does not exist, because this is a joke! (Phew, I’m glad we’ve got that straight!) Credit should be given to Singer and Avery for their very clear explanation of the causes of the 8 ice ages the Earth has been through in the last 750,000 years. However, this is almost the last time (in the revised, updated, and re-organised 2008 version of the book) that scientific facts are completely correctly and unambiguously stated. The remainder of the book is full of cherry-picked data and highly-prejudicial commentary and, although ice core data is repeatedly referred to, the whole data is never presented graphically in order that readers may contextualise the arguments being made. Figure 1 from Hansen et al (2008)This is not surprising, however, because anyone who looks at all of the data (again reproduced from Hansen et al (2008) here for convenience) can see that the dominant and significant changes in temperature (between glacial and interglacial periods over at least the last 425,000 years) completely dwarf any changes operating on anything approaching a 1500-year cycle. Even if everything Singer and Avery say about the existence of such cycles is true (although they offer no convincing explanatory mechanism), that does not change the fact that they are ignoring the bigger picture; the explanation for which is fundamental to proper understanding and/or appreciation of the significance of what has happened since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution in 1750. Therefore, Singer and Avery appear to be guilty of having gone on a “fishing trip“… Having decided that CO2 is not the cause of the problem (and/or that there is no problem), they have gone looking for an alternative message and, rather like those that find the face of Jesus on a piece of toast with marmite on it – they found one. With regard to their suggestion that the Sun may be responsible for this supposed 1500-cycle of modest warming and cooling (although it could also just be random variation), the only widely-recognised cyclical changes in the Sun’s total irradiance are those due to sunspot activity (with a period of anything between 7 and 14 years – varying in brightness by 0.1%). Apart from this, the average energy output of the Sun has been remarkably constant over geological timescales (estimated to have increased by no more than 0.5% over the last 65 million years). Therefore, the one thing we can be certain of is that the Sun is not the primary driver of the unprecedented warming of the Earth since the Industrial Revolution. It really is a no-brainer; the “elephant in the room” is carbon dioxide (CO2): The Sun does not explain any of the significant temperature changes in the Earth’s history; it cannot even explain the overall modest cooling trend during the last 7,000 years of the inter-glacial period during which modern civilisation has developed. Furthermore, whereas changes in the Earth’s orbit and/or inclination of its axis of rotation can explain the repeated glaciations of the last 750,000 years, they do not explain the changes in atmospheric CO2 that have accompanied them. Once you understand that, the imminent danger we face becomes obvious; and the accelerating melting of ice sheets, glaciers, permafrost and sea ice around the world just goes to show how delusional and dangerous the misinformation in this book is. Buyer beware! Unstoppable Global Warming may well be taking place but, the Earth has not seen anything like it for 15,000 years and, given that we are already in an interglacial (warm) period, where we are now heading, it may well not have seen for over 50 million years. Reader beware!

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About Rick Altman

Possibly just another 'Climate Cassandra' crying 'Wolf' in cyberspace. However, the moral of the old children's story is that the Wolf eventually turned up!
This entry was posted in Anthropocene, Climate Science, Cognitive Dissonance, Confirmation Bias, Environment, Junk Science, Pseudo science, Scepticism and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to Unstoppable Global Warming by Singer and Avery

  1. Pingback: Fables about population and food? | Anthropocene Reality

  2. Rick, did you read this book?

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  3. Not yet Rick, but I did pick it up, along with your other recommendation, “Storms of my Grandchildren.” I am reading that one first. Thanks!

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  4. Pingback: Christopher Booker – an illogical ‘sceptic’ | Anthropocene Reality

  5. Pingback: The Secret life of the Sun | Anthropocene Reality

  6. Storms of My Grandchildren is a fantastic book which I highly recommend to all readers. Singer, unfortunately, is a professional contrarian who, sadly, is terribly misinforming the public.

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    • Anthropocene Reality says:

      Not for long, hopefully. Sadly, I think a lot of professional contrarians like Singer will go their deaths asserting they are right. I hope they chose cremation because, if not, I think their mortal remains are unlikely to remain undisturbed. For the avoidance of any doubt, I am not condoning nor inciting any disrespectful and/or illegal acts – I just fear they will be inevitable.

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